Being on the wrong side of the employment report

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Friday July 02, 2004 · 3:28 PM PDT

2004/07/02 · 15:28

That damn report keeps taunting me. For the last six months I've been on the wrong side. Just when you start to second guess your first thoughts, things turn on you making you look silly. I think its important to be humbled by your mistakes every once in a while, so allow me to show you my latest dud relating to today's employment report.

Here are some excerpts of an email I sent out Saturday: Read More

What does the Fed raising interest rates mean?

jjayson

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Wednesday June 30, 2004 · 1:35 PM PDT

2004/06/30 · 13:35

What does the Fed raising interest rates mean?

Every six to eight weeks we hear all this about the Fed (really the Federal Open Market Committee) changing interest rates. Some get confused as to what this means, and others just seem to have a weird interpretation. They get these strange idea that the Fed is setting the rate on government debt or something. Those are all set by the market, but here's a quick description of what the Fed actually does.

There is essentially only one rate (and others that are keyed off of it) that the Fed can set by fiat, the discount rate. That is the interest rate the Federal Reserve Bank charges member banks to borrow money overnight. However, this isn't the rate you usually hear being talked about. But it does bring up one important question of why a bank would borrow money just for a single night?

Every day banks need to meet reserve requirements. That is, they need to have part of their deposits covered. Currently that is 10 percent. That means if a bank has $100 million in deposits, it must have at least $10 million to cover potential withdraws. (In practice, this is more complicated. Some types of deposits have no reserve requirements, and smaller banks have lower reserve requirements.) This prevents the bank for taking the $10 I deposited and turning around and loaning it all out to somebody else. It can still loan $9 out, though. If that bank didn't have $10 million to cover its 10 percent of $100 million in people's accounts, it would need to borrow to cover the reserve requirement. It could just go to the Fed discount window and get a loan there from the big man himself. Read More

Hetch Hetchy's Grave

jjayson

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Tuesday June 29, 2004 · 4:10 PM PDT

2004/06/29 · 16:10

First, unimportant news. I am no longers in that hole of a place referred to as Washington DC. I might be back, but hopefully not. Hopefully I'll find my way back to San Francisco.

This gives me a good oportunity to commend Gov. Arnold Schwartzenegger for his choice of the John Miur state quarter design. In my book, this gives Arnold a little bit of spare credibility that he can cash in on when he makes a poor decision later.

The world would be a worse place if John Muir had never found Yosemite. I'm an avid rock climber so Muir has had a tremendous impact on my life. A few years ago I spent the entire summer (shhh) in the Yosemite Valley clumbing and visiting the Mecca of modern rock climbing.

[editor's note, by jjayson] I come back here after being gone for almost two weeks, and all I find is a bunch of whining about "reign" versus "ring." Somebody remind me why I came back. Read More

Religious Conversion

jjayson

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Thursday June 10, 2004 · 2:38 PM PDT

2004/06/10 · 14:38

The First Century Church

My religious and spiritual life (and lack of) has been all over the map. In many ways it mirrors my physical life having lived in eight metropolital areas. I went to Catholic School, but wasn't very religious, and not Catholic at all. The football team had to go to mass before games, but that was most of my attendance. (I played inside linebacker.) I was involved in a strong church boys choir that toured when I was young too, but I only really considered it vocal and social. I ran around under the church before and after performances and practice. It was fun, but then your voice changes and you get kicked out, so I stopped going there. My father also had strong ties to the founder of a national Protestant church that some of you know about and some might actually attend.

I've read the Vedas, Mahabharata including extensive commentary on the Gita, Ramayana, Puranas, other primary and secondary material, and taken various classes at Berkeley that covered them as literature. But I have never considered myself Hindu, unlike Frederica Matthewes-Green for anybody who's heard of her. However the reading is great and the story more engaging than the Bible. Gambling, treatchery, shooting arrows down with other arrows while riding into a massive battle, turning into a woman only to be widowed -- it doesn't get much better than that. I've even read translated sections of the Koran, but that is because I don't read Arabic.

I've also done the Atheist and agnostic things. While not Buddhist, I did and still do practice Zazen meditation. In fact the first story I ever posted over at Kuro5hin was about Zazen. I started Judo when I was young and that was how I was first introduced.
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Why Chalabi-Iran now? The OR-1 Race. Kerry's Haliburton Connection. Kazemi Murder.

jjayson

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Monday May 24, 2004 · 1:17 PM PDT

2004/05/24 · 13:17

Here are four quick unrelated items, including a link to a very well written article in the Ottawa Citizen.

One. The Ottawa Citizen has an excellent article about the imprisonment, torture, and murder of Canadian photojournalist Zahra Kazemi in Iran's infamous Evin prison. The author Michael Petrou went to Iran under a tourist visa to secretly interview other Evin inmates there at the time Kazemi was beaten to death and the following cover up. The story is just very well researched and written. Go read it.

Two. Why is everybody going after the Chalabi-Tehran connection now? Not like, why are people making a big deal out of it at all, but why now? The first time I read the accusation in the press was about a month ago, and I had heard something about it a little before then even. I know the DIA just chimed in, but there doesn't really appear to be any new information. And with the way rumors are so quickly turned into fact this year, you would think last month's breaching of the item would have attracted more attention. Read More

PSA: Invective vs. Ad Hominem

jjayson

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Thursday May 20, 2004 · 1:03 PM PDT

2004/05/20 · 13:03

It has recently come to my attention that many here do not comprehend the difference between invective and argument by ad hominem. I really dislike like these logical fallacy discussions, but if you are going to bring it up, at least be correct about it next time.

In my previous diary entry I called Juan Cole a "tool," and many here kept mistaking that for an ad hom argument. It was entirely invective, an insult, or simple abuse. The difference isn't in the word, but in the usage.

Calling dKos patrons tools is invective. Saying that you don't understand the difference between invective and ad hom because you are dKos patrons is ad hom.

A classic example of an ad hom is from Juan Cole himself when he claims that somebody "doesn't know anything about Iran" because "He doesn't speak Persian, and I believe he has never been there." Instead of actually forming a substantive argument, Cole attacks the person. More specifically, this is an ad hom of circumstance.

It is a rational statement that somebody who speaks the local languages might would be better equipted to understand the region, but it isn't proof of anything. If speaking Persian gave the professor a better understanding, it would come out in his ability to make more forceful arguements and speak about the issue with deeper knowledge. It simply cannot be used as a reason he is right.

When I say most of you are all a bunch of flaming morons incapable of either forming a cogent argument or evaluating one, that is strictly an insult combined with a statement. If I am using the fact that you people are flaming morons to back up the observation that you are incapable of discourse, then that is argument by ad hom.

Do all of you understand it now, you tools (invective)?

Juan Cole, Uninformed Comment

jjayson

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Wednesday May 19, 2004 · 12:40 PM PDT

2004/05/19 · 12:40

Juan Cole, professor of History at the University of Michigan, is the current darling of many. The man oozes arrogance, from that obnoxious picture on his webpage with his right hand holding his chin up as if his jaw wouldn't stop dropping from the awe he inspires in himself to the title of his weblog "Informed Comment". A favorite first-line argument of his about people he disagrees with seems to be to attack that they don't speak Arabic or Persian. And he is guilty of one of my pet peeves, misusing the phrase "to beg the question" (for such a self-styled intellectual this should be grounds for severe ridicule).

I shouldn't call him uninformed. He clearly isn't. He has a tremendous amount of knowledge floating around in his head. However, I think his ability to take that knowledge and form arguments that are strong, coherent, and useful isn't very well established. That is a skill though that not everybody has, and it is as much innate as learned. I think his critical thinking skills are underdeveloped, and parroting back what he's read in the press if often the extend of Cole's best analysis. Related to that, I think Cole gets easily convinced by similarly weak arguments based on skewed rhetoric.

I may be a little too hard on the professor (that picture really bothers me), but even when I agree with him, sometimes I wish he would just keep his mouth shut. He has a gift for making the argument most likely to lead nowhere -- or worse -- make your shared position sound foolish. I first began to notice disagreements with him when he didn't make critical distinctions between the different forces inside Iran and treated the rulership as of a single voice. Some other links he gave to poorly argued positions were also disheartening. However, Cole's latest is his post in gay marriage. As he says "sometimes readers complain if I stray into other subjects." I'm not complaining that he does stray into other areas, just that he doesn't do it very well. Read More

The Supply-Side Evolution

jjayson

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Wednesday May 12, 2004 · 4:27 PM PDT

2004/05/12 · 16:27

A few years ago I was talking to a well-known supply-sider (this was before I believed any of it). I asked what it would take for the supply-side revolution to be considered a success? He said it wasn't going to be measured by how many people called themselves supply-siders, but in how it changes orthodox economic thought.

The supply-side ideas were never a new branch of economics. They had their foundation in classical economics. It was the economics of those from the far left like Karl Marx to the far right like Adam Smith. The roots can even be traced all the way back to a 14th century Arab philosopher, ibn Khaldun, who Reagan liked to quote, such as in a 1986 speech:

The effort is designed to be revenue-neutral, so if a large number of people and businesses are paying less, some people and businesses will be paying more. But those whose taxload will increase are those who have made extensive use of tax shelters and other schemes and have not really been paying proportionately a fair share of the tax burden. However, lowering the rates does not translate as tax shift. Lowering the rates and broadening the base will actually add to government revenue. As far back as the 14th century, a Moslem philosopher named ibn-Khaldun observed, "... At the beginning of a dynasty taxation yields a large revenue from small assessments. At the end of the dynasty taxation yields a small revenue from large assessments."

Jude Wanniski, one of the early supply-siders, has expressed amazement at ibn Khladun's clear thought and how he could have never heard of him until Reagan had mentioned the philosopher, historian, and politician.

However, it now looks like there has some supply-side success at changing orthodoxy. A recent survey of economist explicity names the supply-siders as one reason minds are changing. Read More

Employment numbers and the market

jjayson

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Friday May 07, 2004 · 4:04 PM PDT

2004/05/07 · 16:04

So today was good news on the employment front. This morning (oh so very early morning) I posted [what impacts the jobs report would have on my portfolion http://jjayson.dailykos.com/story/2004/5/7/554/64679] just to give people a look at my twisted investment thought process. I got a little lucky and did well (post mortem inside).

First, the good news about jobs. I haven't really heard much negative from people today, except for the odd person that was looking for another 300,000-plus payroll additions and saw it as a necessity of job creation proof (I was looking for a hair above 300,000 too, but I would have accepted anything above 250,000). We did get 288,000 and an upward revision of March to 337,000. (I guess the 29,000 revision plus this month's gain gives us 317,000 from the report, so I can be happy with that.) Besides that, long-term unemployment was down too.

And this is one of very few months recently where the household survey and payroll survey are in line with each other. The household survey showed an employment increase of 278,000 (last month when the payroll shows a 308,000 increase and the household actually showed a 3,000 drop). And once again unemployment and labor force participation would be showing ever better numbers if 16-19 year-olds were ignored. Read More

Today's jobs report and how it could clean me out.

jjayson

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Friday May 07, 2004 · 2:05 AM PDT

2004/05/07 · 02:05

First of all. Damn it's early. I've only been asleep for about 5 hours, but had to get up for some breakfast meeting. I wrote this last night and forgot to post it. So when it refers to tomorrow, it means today, Friday.

I'm still in a good mood from the weekend. This Sunday we had one of our friendly investment brunches. We had a few new people too (well two were not entirely new). Even though it is Thursday, a little late in the week, I hope everybody had a good last weekend. One of the big topics Sunday was the jobs report tomorrow.

My thinking about my investment portfolio can sometimes be a little twisted. But I'll let you in to see just how bad it can be sometimes. I rarely write about my investment decisions in public spaces (mostly because of embarassment), but I've actually had a couple people from dKos ask me in email about some things, so I thought I'd let you into my thought process, no matter how embarassing it may be. Of course I'm wrong often, so never ever take my advice (I beg you to not do it -- as you might actually do better going the opposire way from me). Also, much of my time has been consumed lately so I haven't had much left for dealing with my own financial affairs. However, Sunday, this week's Fed announcement, and tomorrow's job report pushed me into action. Read More

Human Rights are soooo 2500 years ago.

jjayson

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Monday April 26, 2004 · 3:52 PM PDT

2004/04/26 · 15:52

The set-up for what many consider to be the first declaration of human rights is conquest in the city of Babylon by Cyrus the Great in 538 BC. Nabonidus ruled over the Babylonian empire with terror. He stripped religious freedom from his people, brought violence down on them, and forced them to work. He enslaved and brutalized minorites and dissenters. When some of the population tried to revolt, they were put down, but at that time the people were so miserable, they welcomed Cyrus and his army, the story goes, in a bloodless triumph.

Upon taking the title of King of Babylon, Cyrus gave a proclamation of his benvolence. He returned all the images of the gods of the people taken by the former ruler, and released all the slaves, including 50,000 Jewish third-generation slaves. He even financed the return of the Jews to their homeland and the rebuilding of their temple. For this, the Bible proclaimed him God's shepherd and His annointed one. This proclamation was chisled onto a 9-inch cynliner in Babylonian cuneiform.

jjayson

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Sunday April 25, 2004 · 3:25 PM PDT

2004/04/25 · 15:25

This is for Armando. If you are not Armando, then stop reading. No, I mean it. Stop right now. Do not pass this first paragraph and do not collect $200. Are you still reading? Well... I guess you can continue... but I'm watching you.

Sorry, Armando, I wasn't able to scrounge around for as much as I wanted. But here is a couple links. Next time I'll translate some of the rumor mill stuff, but not this time (that and I'm pretty bad at it).

So, the general idea is that Muqtada al-Sadr isn't taking all his orders from the hard-liners in Tehran (you don't need to give direction to somebody that is going your way), but that he is receiving material and diplimatic support from them, and they are trying to position him. Sadr and Tehran have a common interest; they want ot see America fail and an Islamic Revolution in Iraq, even if they disagree on the some of the details. Since Sadr doesn't have the religious clout of a Sistani, he needs to use the religious standing of others. Iranian Ayatollah Kazem al-Haeri is one of those that provides this cover, calling Sadr his "representative" in Iraq. Haeri is very close to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Sadr, looking for more support, met with Expediency Chairman and former-president Hashemi Rafsanjani and head of Revolutionary Guard intelligence Murtadha Radhai. There he received the promise of support or Iran and terrorist surrogate Hizbollah. Since then, Rafsanjani has used his Friday sermon to support Sadr and diplomatic attempts have been made to get Sadr accepted by others in Iraq as the important leader.

Although I tried to keep any sources out that you might not find too redible, for just one piece from the right, here is one of Michael Ledeen's articles on the connection. Read More

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